Preview:
Spain v Holland - World Cup Final 2010

Here's my analysis/predictions for the final. While I'm not Paul the Octopus, who has wagered that spain will triumph, here's just an analysis from a soccer fan and lover of the game.

First up, it is fair to say that Spain's "tiki-taka" approach to football, ie playing short passes, triangles, passing and moving - a style developed from barca, will ensure that they retain most of the ball. And in Xavi Hernandez, they have probably the best passer on the planet right now - his awareness, accuracy, and most importantly decision making is always spot on. In fact, the number of times he's lost the ball, I think, can be counted with 1 hand (2 were against germany, i think). He is always available for that short option backwards when there's little space, to recycle the ball, spread it wide, hit the through pass, or play little triangles with members of his midfield three. And his first touch is so good (he always uses his body quite perfectly well as a shield) that it is impossible to get the ball off him, since he'd just turn and play a pass. And because all the Spanish players are able to retain possession of the ball very well, it means that there are almost numerous options for ball-recycling. Xabi Alonso is probably the perfect foil for Xavi since he plays deeper, and can be trusted to send raking balls to the flanks (esp to ramos) - it means that, shortwise or longwise, there is always a passing option.

However, possession without penetration only leads to, well, sad to say, arsenal. Lots of possession without any penetration, any danger. Sure, xavi can keep passing around the center circle, but no one scores goals from there. the attack has to advance. And so it is up to the likes of villa, iniesta, pedro (if he plays) to make things happen - and the Dutch have been rather stingy in defence, to be able to close up the space in between the defence and the midfield (by employing the 2 holding midfielders in de jong and van bommel) very well, with these 2 midfielders really snapping at every ball, working diligently and tirelessly, to break up the play. and if xavi et al can't find the passes forward, the ball is left to recycle. so it's really a test of mental strength - can the dutch in fact keep concentration in closing down space and restricting passing options for a whole 90 minutes? I'm not so sure about that - I think with de jong back things will be much better than against uruguay, but I'm not so sure either about spains' abiility to attack in a manner that brazil did against holland in the first half of that quarter final, with robinho, maicon, kaka, all running at pace at a slow back 4. iniesta is no slouch but definitely not as fast as robinho. xavi is pretty slow. villa, well, he's fast but he's just one man.

On the other front though, i'm not sure whether the dutch can even retain enough possession to fashion enough chances. spain, in my money's opinion, will cut off all angles to robben to prevent the simple pass to him which will result in his running at a spanish defender, whether ramos or capdevilia. i'm pretty sure that busquets will go and cover the flanks to prevent that one-on-one situation, which leaves space for sniejder etc to do some magic. but robben is a game changer - if he is up to his electrifying best, i can see the game going holland's way, because it will take some stopping, to bring him down - maybe 3 men or more, since he's so technically gifted, skilful, and fast at the same time. kuyt on the other flank gives holland some good options since he's always tirelessly running,making angles for a pass, and so on. and van persie well holds up play pretty well and is a pretty good linkman and has some skills and a good shot to boot. but with the spanish team always pressing, closing down the space, and preventing the other team from playing, it's going to be hard for a holland team to find passing channels and create chances, or even finding a teammate, since the spanish defend collectively to cover all passing lanes, not just the most dangerous ones.

On the other hand, i believe the dutch are technically more gifted than the germans. sneidjer has a better first touch than ozil, has 2 good feet, and van persie has likewise better control than klose, although he fails in the heading department. robben is faster than trochowski, which means that the full backs will not be able to push up that much.

Overall i could see spain sneaking it by 1 goal - my head says spain though my heart says holland. i can see that upset coming, that no one really expected. but it will take a great individual performance by one of holland's attacking stars to do so, whereas spain is less reliant on individual magic.